When Will Irma Hit Sarasota, Florida? [Sept. 9 Update]

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Hurricane Irma rain totals, Hurricane Irma rain, Hurricane Irma forecast,NOAA/NHC

Hurricane Irma rainfall total estimates from the National Hurricane Service.

Sarasota and the rest of Sarasota County are expected to take a major hit from Hurricane Irma by Sunday afternoon, according to the 11:00 a.m. ET Saturday public advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The area is under a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning.

Hurricane Irma track, Hurricane Irma Sarasota, Hurricane Irma

The latest map of Hurricane Irma as of 11 a.m. on September 9.

The National Weather Service forecasts that Sarasota will begin experiencing thunderstorms and rain today into Saturday night. By Sunday, the city will experience tropical storm conditions, with hurricane conditions arriving by Sunday night. Sarasota could continue to see rain and thunderstorms into Thursday.

Although the 11 a.m. ET advisory notes that Irma has been downgraded to a Category 3 hurricane, with sustained winds at 125 mph, it is expected to gain strength over the Florida Strait after passing over Cuba. Hurricane force winds extending outward from the storm have already reached up to 70 mph.

“A northwest motion is expected to begin later today with a turn toward the north-northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to move near or over the north coast of Cuba later today, and will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning,” the NHC 11 a.m. advisory reads. “The hurricane is expected to move along or near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon.”

Storm surges around the west coast of Florida could reach up to 8 feet over normal levels. Cape Sable in Monroe County, the southernmost point of the mainland U.S., could see storm surges up to 10 to 15 feet.

Here is the seven-day forecast for Sarasota, from the National Weather Service. The NWS notes that the city is also under a flash flood watch.

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 102. Windy, with a northeast wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Windy, with a northeast wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday: Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 85. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
Sunday Night: Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 80. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Monday: Hurricane conditions possible. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
TuesdayIsolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. West southwest wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. South southwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

To find shelters in Sarasota, click here to use the FloridaDisaster.org site and type in your address. You can use this map to find your evacuation zone by typing in your address. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for residents in Zone A, which includes those in low-lying areas, residents on the barrier islands and residents in mobile homes.

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