One of the biggest SEC rivalries kicks off Saturday afternoon as Florida hosts Tennessee. According to OddsShark, Florida is favored by 5.5, and the over-under is set at 49 points.
The public likes the underdog with 60 percent siding with Tennessee. The OddsShark computer likes the Vols to pull off the upset. The computer is taking Tennessee to win 21.8-14.2. The computer predicts Tennessee will cover the spread, and picks the under on the point total.
In a limited sample size, both teams have struggled against the spread. Despite winning their first two games, the Vols are 0-2 against the spread. Florida has only played Michigan after last week’s game was cancelled due to the hurricane. The Gators are 0-1 both straight up and against the spread.
Florida is difficult to get a sense of how good they can be this season. The Gators have only played one game, and had double-digit players suspended against Michigan. The offense looked dreadful in their opener, but will receive a boost with Antonio Calloway and Jordan Scarlett expected to return.
It will be worth watching who Jim McElwain goes with at quarterback. Feleipe Franks got his first career start, but had a short leash against Michigan. Franks should benefit from getting his weapons back.
Bill Connelly’s SB Nation’s S&P+ projections like the Gators chances. The projections have Florida winning by 7.7 points.
Tennessee is fortunate to be 2-0. They were outplayed for most of their opening game against Georgia Tech. Last week, they blew out an inferior Indiana State team.
We have not seen how Florida is capable of playing with a full squad. The most recent Florida-Tennessee matchups have been close contests. Expect more of the same for today’s game.
The Gators should get back on track today with their full squad returning, but the Vols are going to hang around to make it difficult.
Heavy’s Pick: Florida 24 Tennessee 21. Tennessee +4. Under on the Point Total.