Whether you want to call Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor a fight or a farce, there’s no denying it’s an absolutely massive event for bettors.
According to ESPN, multiple $1 million bets have come in on Mayweather in the last couple of days, while oddsmakers are confident that the total money in wagers will surpass the record $60 million from the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight in 2015.
While huge bets continue to swing the moneyline in both directions, here’s a look at the most recent odds, courtesy of OddsShark:
Floyd Mayweather Jr.: -450
Conor McGregor: +325
Method of Victory
Mayweather by KO, TKO or DQ: -140
Mayweather by Decision or Technical Decision: +250
McGregor by KO, TKO or DQ: +333
McGregor by Decision or Technical Decision: +1400
Fight Drawn: +3300
Countless experts, UFC fighters and boxers have echoed a similar sentiment: McGregor has no chance.
And really, it’s hard to disagree. Mayweather is one of the greatest defensive fighters of all-time, and certainly the greatest of his generation. Oscar De La Hoya could barely touch him in 2007. Neither could Ricky Hatton or Canelo Alavarez or Manny Pacquiao.
How, then, is McGregor–someone with zero professional boxing experience–supposed to fare any differently? There’s no question that “Notorious” has electrifying striking skills, but the transition from MMA to boxing isn’t an easy one. And even if he can make a seamless transition, he still has to figure out a way to out-box one of the most technically sound boxers of all-time.
“Nobody wins with Mayweather. I think his defense is the best, but I think it’s just defense, not boxing skills,” said Vasyl Lomachenko, one of the best pound-for-pound boxers in the world today. “Not combination, he has speed and power, but a lot of people know about the problem with his hands.”
Even with such short odds (anywhere from -450 to -600, depending on where you look), Mayweather has to be the pick.
If you want to net a little more profit, consider going with Mayweather by decision (+250).
Mayweather has said that he needs to knock out McGregor to feel satisfied, but as long as he finishes the night at 50-0, he’ll be happy. He’s not a risk taker, and with McGregor’s dangerous KO power, he should take any. Instead, the 40-year-old will be just fine conserving his energy, sticking to his game-plan, warding off McGregor’s likely early aggression, picking his spots and toying with the less-experienced fighter.
Mayweather hasn’t knocked anyone out since Victor Ortiz in 2011, and I think that trend continues in Las Vegas on Saturday night.
Prediction: Mayweather via unanimous decision