Irma Spaghetti Models: Where Will Hurricane Go Next? [Sept. 10 Evening]

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South Florida Waste Management District

Sunday evening spaghetti model.

Hurricane Irma made two landfalls in the U.S. on Sunday: First, it made landfall at Cudjoe Key. Then, it struck Marco Island before heading to Naples, on Florida’s southwest coast.

That has a lot of people asking: Where will Irma go next?

Cyclocane has some of the best real-time spaghetti models. It shows that Irma’s path will take her next through southwest Georgia, northeast Alabama, and then into Tennessee, Kentucky, and then even parts of Indiana and Ohio. It’s not clear how strong the storm will still be there when and if it gets there, though. See the Cyclocane model here. The site also has other maps of the storm, including satellite imagery.

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Other spaghetti models also provide a sense of the hurricane’s latest path, and they tell a similar story. The South Florida Waste Management District has an updated website with the latest spaghetti models. Here’s what the Sunday evening model shows about where Irma is headed next. The map shows a similar path, although it doesn’t show past Alabama and Georgia.

Sunday evening spaghetti plot.

The National Hurricane Center doesn’t use spaghetti plots. Its model shows a very similar future path for the storm. This is the Sunday evening forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center that gives you a sense of the storm’s future path:

Hurricane Irma map, Hurricane Irma projection, Hurricane Irma map

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NOAA/NHCThe National Hurricane Center’s 11:00 a.m. ET Hurricane Irma projection.

Other types of models also showed the same future track:

The National Center for Atmospheric Research also has spaghetti models. Its plots on Sunday night show a very similar track for the storm as Cyclocane and the others. You can see one of the Sunday night plots here. Here’s another plot. It shows the storm getting progressively disorganized.

At 8 p.m, the National Hurricane Center reported:

IRMA MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR FT. MYERS…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGES EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST…

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SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…26.7N 81.7W
ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM ENE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM SE OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…942 MB…27.82 INCHES

Here is a wind time arrival map from NHC:

Irma wind arrival time.

You can see a round up of other Irma real-time tracking sites here, including live radar and satellite feeds:

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