Irma Spaghetti Models Update: Hurricane’s West Florida Path


South Florida Waste Management District

Spaghetti model for Friday evening.

The latest Hurricane Irma spaghetti models on the evening of Friday September 8, as the storm gets closer to making landfall, showed it continuing to shift to the west, continuing a recent trend. That puts west Florida in far more peril than the previous day, although all of the forecasting models are projections subject to change due to the storm’s unpredictability.

For several days, the models had shown the storm tracking eastward, which raised hopes it could move out to sea and raised concerns it could end up making landfall in South Carolina or along Florida’s eastern coast. Then, on Friday morning, the spaghetti models revealed a possible westward shift in the storm.

However, the Friday evening spaghetti models are showing that this westward shift is becoming more pronounced, imperiling the western coast of Florida. Cyclocane has a constantly updating spaghetti model. On the evening of September 8, it showed this westward shift, with the hurricane now tracking up the western coast of Florida, before crossing southwestern Georgia, and into parts of Alabama and Tennessee. Alabama being so possibly affected was the other big change from Friday morning to evening. (See more of the latest spaghetti models below.)

The South Florida Waste Management District has been running updated spaghetti models of Irma for days. Here, you can see a sequence of the models, most recent to older, to see how the storm has shifted.

Friday evening:

Friday evening spaghetti model.

The Sun Sentinel noted this trend, writing on Friday evening, “Hurricane Irma regained Category 5 strength late Friday night and shifted its likely course farther west, away from the heavily populated southeast Florida coast…The shift in course could be good news for Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties and bad news for Naples, Fort Myers and Tampa.”

However, that doesn’t mean that people in the rest of Florida or states like South Carolina should breathe a sigh of relief yet; the storm is unpredictable, and all of South Florida, in particular, is in peril. An error of just 50 miles could be very bad for the east coast of Florida, the newspaper pointed out.

This was the model on Friday morning:

spaghetti model

South Florida Waste Management DistrictFriday morning September 8 spaghetti model.

Thursday night:

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South Florida Waste Management DistrictThursday evening spaghetti model for Hurricane Irma.

Wednesday night:

South Florida Waste Management DistrictA spaghetti model of the Hurricane Irma path for September 6 in the evening.

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The National Center for Atmospheric Research is also running constantly updating spaghetti models. Its plot for the evening of September 8 showed a similar trend. See also this plot.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses a different cone model. Here is what it showed on the evening of September 8 for comparison purposes:

Hurricane Irma path, Hurricane Irma track

NOAA/NHCHurricane Irma forecast as of 8 p.m. Friday.

Here are some other path maps from NOAA:

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National Hurricane Center


National Hurricane Center

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Here are some other recent spaghetti models: