Irma Spaghetti Models on Sept. 9: Where Will Irma Hit?

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South Florida Waste Management District

Where will Irma hit? See the latest Hurricane Irma spaghetti models on Saturday Sept. 9 that chart the storm’s real-time path.

The latest Hurricane spaghetti models on the morning of Saturday, September 9 show that the hurricane has continued shifting west, which is frightening news for people on Florida’s west coast.

For days, models were showing that the hurricane was shifting east even raising hopes it could head out to sea. The newer westward trends could be bad news for people in West Coast cities like Tampa and Fort Myers, although the models are simply projections, and the monstrous storm remains unpredictable.

You can see continually updating spaghetti models at this page run by the South Florida Waste Management District. Their 8 a.m. spaghetti model for September 9 shows the western Florida peril (as well as the peril to the south).

Saturday morning spaghetti model.

That’s a pretty pronounced difference since September 6. For comparison purposes, this was the spaghetti model from the site on the 6th.

irma spaghetti model

South Florida Water Management DistrictA September 6 evening spaghetti model.

Cyclocane is another good site to check updated spaghetti models. You can see a map with a continually updating model here. The September 9 model also shows the massive hurricane making landfall in Florida in the southwest before crawling up the western coast of Florida.

Another agency that runs updated spaghetti models is the National Center for Atmospheric Research. You can see some of their September 9 spaghetti plots here and here.

A few miles difference could make all of the difference for some areas of Florida, and the storm remains unpredictable.

Other agencies use cone forecast maps. Here’s the National Hurricane Center’s Saturday morning map:

Saturday morning forecast cone.

The European model, which many consider to be the more accurate, shows the same westward trend.

At 8 a.m. on September 9, the National Hurricane Center presented this information about the hurricane’s location:

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.6N 79.6W
ABOUT 10 MI…15 KM NW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 225 MI…365 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…937 MB…27.67 INCHES

Moving along the coast of Cuba, Irma was a Category 4 storm but expected to pick strength back up.

“At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by a reconnaissance plane and Cuban radars near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 79.5 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), along the north coast of Cuba. A northwest motion is expected to begin later today with a turn toward the north-northwest tonight or on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to move near or over the north coast of Cuba this morning, and will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is expected to be near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon,” the morning note from the National Hurricane Center said.

Wind arrival times for Irma – Saturday, September 9 projection.

“The interaction with the terrain of Cuba has weakened the hurricane a little. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts, but Irma remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves away from Cuba, and Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane was 937 mb (27.67 inches).”