Hurricane Maria Spaghetti Models: Latest Path Update for Sept. 19

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SFWMD

Spaghetti model for September 19 for Maria.

Hurricane Maria intensified into a Category storm with 160 mph winds, but what are the chances that Maria will strike the United States coast?

The latest spaghetti models for September 19 show that the storm is still projected to shift to the north, which would be good news for Florida. However, the forecasting models are simply projections. Hurricane Irma also was on track to possibly head out to sea until the massive storm shifted to the western coast of Florida. That all has people watching Maria very closely (Irma was a stronger storm, registering 185 mph winds.)

Still, the shift to the north looked even more pronounced on September 19 than it had in the previous days.

Cyclocane is one of the best sites to track real-time Hurricane Maria spaghetti models. You can see the site’s Hurricane Maria spaghetti model map here. See other maps and satellite paths for Maria here.

The South Florida Waste Management District also has a regularly updated spaghetti model plot for Maria. Here’s the plot for September 19:

Spaghetti model for Hurricane Maria on September 19.

For comparison purposes, here’s the SFWMD map for Maria the night before.

SFWMDMaria spaghetti plot for the evening of September 18.

There is some concern the storm could merge with Jose.

In contrast, the National Hurricane Center uses a forecast cone model. Here’s the model for September 19. The path it’s charting closely resembles the path in the spaghetti models.

Hurricane Maria track, Hurricane Maria path, Hurricane Maria track

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NHC/NOAAHurricane Maria forecast as of 8 a.m. September 19, from the National Hurricane Center.

Here’s a look at the projected wind arrival times for Maria:

National Hurricane Center

This was the National Hurricane Center’s public advisory on Maria on September 19:

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“POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA HEADED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.2N 62.8W
ABOUT 85 MI…135 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 170 MI…275 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…933 MB…27.55 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

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SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border”

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