Hurricane Irma Spaghetti Models: New Forecast Tracks


South Florida Waste Management District

Spaghetti model for Hurricane Irma on September 7 in the evening.

The latest Hurricane Irma spaghetti models show that the hurricane is now shifting slightly to the west. That’s potentially bad news for Georgia, or even Tennessee, although it’s unclear how strong the storm will be if it gets there.

The South Florida Waste Management District has updated spaghetti models on its page. Here’s the new model from the evening of September 7.

spaghetti model

A Hurricane Irma spaghetti model from the evening of Sept. 7

The newest spaghetti models are also not good news for central Florida.

Cyclocane’s latest spaghetti model also shows the storm now tracking into Georgia and Tennessee. See those spaghetti models here. This page also has a hurricane storm tracker, radar, and other maps.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) also has a page of recent spaghetti models for Irma. Their plots also show Georgia in peril. Here’s another spaghetti model from NCAR showing that path.

The shift to the west matches the new forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center, which is a different type of forecast model. Be aware that the hurricane remains very unpredictable.

Hurricane Irma forecast on 11 p.m. September 7.

This was the spaghetti model from SFWMD earlier in the day, to show the shift:

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spaghetti model irma

South Florida Waste Management DistrictThursday morning spaghetti model.

Other recent spaghetti models showed less of a change.

There are many models for tracking the hurricane. Check this view:

USA Today reported that, despite the plethora of models out there, spaghetti and otherwise, experts aren’t sure what the hurricane will do after is likely strikes south Florida. According to USA Today, spaghetti models “show a range of tracks and offer a larger view of a storm’s potential path than a single model.”

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There are different varieties of spaghetti models too. “Ensemble plots are among the different types of spaghetti plots. These feature the same forecast run multiple times over but with slightly different initial data input, such as a half-degree difference in ocean temperature or a slight change in the solar radiation,” USA Today reported.

The dictionary definition of a spaghetti model is “An illustration showing the various projected paths of a weather phenomenon (typically a tropical storm) created by different computer models.”

There are some limitations to spaghetti models. Explains, “Although most models show possible impacts, to present many models succinctly on a single chart, meteorologists generally produce spaghetti plots that usually only show the “where” and a loose representation of “when” for tropical systems. To get to this level of brevity, meteorologists must only focus on the center point of a tropical system, which may or may not be accurate. We’ll get to more on that limitation later, but for now, let’s focus on the lack of impacts.”

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