Hurricane Irma Orlando, Florida: Projected Path & Forecast

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hurricane irmaNational Weather Service

Hurricane Irma at 12:06 p.m. on Sept. 4.

The Florida governor has declared a state of emergency as Hurricane Irma reaches a Category 4 storm. What are the chances, though, that the hurricane will hit Orlando?

Residents of Orlando are preparing, just in case. “Even before Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency in all of Florida’s 67 counties about 5 p.m., residents began stocking up on supplies. Spaces on water shelves at several Publix stores were empty. Generators were sold out by mid-afternoon at The Home Depot on Colonial Drive east of Sermoran Boulevard,” The Orlando Sentinel reported.

This map provides the earliest reasonable arrival times for Hurricane Irma. You can see that the National Weather Service is projecting that the hurricane won’t be over Florida until Friday evening:

Hurricane Irma Tampa

National Hurricane Center

However, it’s south Florida, not central Florida, that’s most in the way of the hurricane’s path. According to the Orlando Sentinel, the hurricane is expected to strike “with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, lashing Key West and Miami by 2 p.m. Saturday.”

Orlando Weekly notes that the hurricane’s path is still unpredictable. “Some models show Irma possibly hitting southern Florida this Friday, Sept. 8, and some show it missing us completely. However, in the meantime, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to check your hurricane kit,” the news site reported on September 4.

You can see the recent radar for Orlando here. Get an hourly forecast for Orlando here. See infrared satellite images for Orlando here. Track the latest path of Irma here.

Check recent weather by zip code here on the State of Florida’s disaster website.

“Computer models show the system moving through the Caribbean, and by the end of week, it will turn right toward the north,” said CNN meteorologist Tom Sater.

“There is a small window. If it turns sooner rather than later, we could maybe see the system slide by the East Coast into the ocean, but that window is shutting quickly,” Sater said to CNN. “It definitely looks like we will be impacted by a major hurricane that is a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

On September 4, the National Weather Service reported a hurricane watch for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The governors of both Puerto Rico and Florida have declared states of emergency as the hurricane looms.

Here’s the current projected path for Irma, as of 11 p.m. on the East Coast:

Hurricane Irma Jacksonville, Hurricane Irma projected path, Hurricane Irma Jacksonville FL

Hurricane Irma’s projected path as of Monday, September 4, 11:00 AST.

This is the extended forecast for Orlando, Florida, from the National Weather Service:

Monday night, September 4

“A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.”

Tuesday

“Scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 101. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.”

Tuesday Night

“A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. South southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.”

Wednesday

“Showers and thunderstorms likely after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 102. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.”

Wednesday Night

“A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph.”

Thursday

“A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming north northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.”

Thursday Night

“A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.”

Friday

“A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.”

Friday Night

“A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Northeast wind around 10 mph.”

Saturday

“Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.”

Saturday Night

“Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 76. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.”

Sunday

“Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 85. Windy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.”