We’re a month into the fantasy season, and the one thing we can count on every year is unpredictability. Maybe your team got an A+ grade after your fantasy draft, only to start the season 1-3 or 0-4. There is still time to recover, but now is the time to act.
The only thing worse than having a bad record is panicking and making a bad trade. That said, don’t be afraid to mix things up if you find value in a deal. The first thing you need to do is assess your team. Don’t look at your record, look at your roster. Are you 4-0, but have the lowest Points Against total? Chances are things are going to even out, and you may not have the most talented players.
Likewise, you may have had a high Points Against tally, and this could be a great contributor for a poor record. After you assess the situation, and are brutally honest about your team it is time to act. We have a list of several players to sell high along with those buy low candidates.
I would love to talk over trade scenarios with you. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @JonDAdams with trade offers. You can also leave questions in the comments section.
Here’s a look at the Week 5 buy and sell candidates.
Players to Buy Week 5
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: In my waiver wire column, I remarked at how surprised I was Kamara has such a low ownership percentage. After his performance in London, that’s likely to change. Kamara may be a rookie, but he is no flash in the pan. All summer long we heard how Sean Payton coveted Alvin Kamara in the draft.
This is not uncommon for a coach to talk up a rookie, and does not always lead to action. I’m looking at you 49ers and Joe Williams. According to FFToday, Kamara is averaging 11.3 fantasy points, a number that is much higher in PPR leagues. If Kamara is not on my team, I would be targeting him.
The Saints are on a bye this week, meaning he could be more attainable in a trade. You might be able to offer an owner more of a “name” player who is under-performing in exchange for Kamara. His usage, especially in the passing game, is only going up each week. Get him now before his asking price becomes too high.
WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams: Kupp is another rookie that has staying power. By the end of the season, I believe Kupp will be the most consistent wide receiver on the Rams. Sammy Watkins will give you massive games, but his usage also disappears based on the gameplan. For the most part, Kupp is going to be used on a weekly basis.
Kupp has six or more targets in three out of four games. Kupp has much more value in PPR leagues. I would value him as a consistent WR3 option, and a fair trade would be giving something of similar value.
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans: This may not be the most ideal time to go after Hopkins after the entire Texans offense went off. The Texans face the Chiefs this week, and the entire team’s offensive output will go down. Hopkins could be a player to target next week.
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Regardless, there is a good chance he ends up as a top three wide receiver at the end of the season. There are very few wide receivers I would rather have than Hopkins. If you are an owner of a name player like Antonio Brown or Odell Beckham Jr., I would look to trade one of these players for Hopkins plus another player. Hopkins is a player to target in two-for-one deals. He has a good chance to outperform whoever you give up on his own. Deshaun Watson is looking his way early and often.
WR Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys: For whatever reason, the Cowboys offense has struggled. Dallas is going to eventually figure it out, and when they do their big three is going to see an uptick in fantasy production. Bryant is fourth in the league in targets with 40. However, he’s in the middle of the pack when it comes to fantasy production.
These numbers will eventually even out, and his fantasy points will catch up with his targets. Bryant still has low-end WR1 potential.
Players to Sell Week 5
WR Chris Hogan, New England Patriots: Hogan is one of the top wide receivers in fantasy production, but ranks 30th in targets. The Patriots offense, especially wide receivers, is extremely difficult to predict. Hogan is riding an amazing streak, but fantasy owners can expect regression.
Now is the time to sell. I would look for a top-20 wide receiver or running back in return.
RB Lamar Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs: I’m not trading Hunt for just anyone. However, if I can either get an elite running back in return or two very good players, I would consider it. Hunt is entering a much tougher stretch of games over the next month where he faces defenses like the Texans and Broncos.
Hunt will continue to be a productive back, but I worry we may have seen his best stretch of games during the first month of the season.
RB Bilal Powell, New York Jets: Powell is coming off a 29-point performance. While I like Powell for the rest of the season, I don’t love him. We likely just saw his best fantasy performance of the season. If I can rid myself of the Jets offense, I would jump at the opportunity.
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WR Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants: Beckham has always struggled with injuries, and it is something fantasy owners have had to deal with during his entire career. However, this season really worries me. If you watched OBJ against the Bucs, you saw him coming in and out of the game.
I am worried the amount of injuries he is battling is going to prove insurmountable. The Giants are 0-4, and you have to wonder if there is a point in the future where the team shuts Beckham down if they are not able to turn things around. At the very least, I think the injuries impact his production.
I would target Hopkins plus another player in return for Beckham. Sell while you still can.
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